In short: US-vs-ex-US peaked almost two years ago and "on a trend basis is headed lower," so it makes sense on a longer-term view "to think about foreign equities" — MSCI US price/book 5.72 vs 2.49 for the rest of the world. Near term, though: "I had been investing in foreign equities. Right now, I'm going to come close to home because I don't like the way the risk setup is."
US stocks trade at about 5.7 times their accounting book value; the rest of the world trades at about 2.5. That gap has closed sharply in past corrections, which would mean big US underperformance. US stocks stopped beating foreign stocks about two years ago, and he thinks the trend points lower, so owning foreign stocks makes sense for the long run. The caveat: he says that right now he is pulling back "close to home" because he doesn't like the near-term risk set-up (September and October are often rough months).
28:22I think that makes sense in a longer term perspective, not just a short-term perspective, to think about foreign equities and I had been investing in foreign equities. Right now, I'm going to come close to home because I don't like the way the risk setup is for the markets. The dollar has been falling ever since the end of 2024 when the dollar was at 110 on the DXY index.
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